My Hacker Theory in a nutshell (1) #36
This is "My Hacker Theory in a nutshell (1)," part #36 of my Turin Shroud Encyclopedia. It will help me write chapter 16, "Were the laboratories duped by a hacker?," of my book in progress, "Shroud of Turin: Burial Sheet of Jesus!" See 06Jul17, 03Jun18, 04Apr22, 13Jul22, 8 Nov 22 & 20Jun24.
[Index #1] [Previous: Neutron flux #35] [Next: My Hacker Theory (2) #37].
As I mentioned in my Shroud of Turin News, September - December 2024: I have realised that before I write my open letter to Nature (see here), I need to write a "My Hacker Theory in a Nutshell" post, along the lines of my, "The Turin Shroud in a nutshell." By "nutshell" I mean "in as few words as possible." However I have given up my hope that this would be a one-page summary of my Hacker Theory, hence the "(1)". It will now be a series of 4 parts: This Part 1, "1260-1390 and the 1989 Nature article." Part 2, "Evidence that the Shroud is older than the earliest 1260 radiocarbon date." Part 3, "Evidence that the hacker was Arizona laboratory physicist Timothy W. Linick (1946-89), aided by German hacker, Karl Koch (1965-89)." And Part 4 "Other Shroudie explanations don't work and Conclusion." But I will still try to keep it as brief as possible by providing links to my previous posts on topics, rather than references, unless there are no online references. This series will be based mainly on my previous series': "Were the radiocarbon dating laboratories duped by a computer hacker?" (18Feb14); "My theory that the radiocarbon dating laboratories were duped by a computer hacker" (24May14); "The 1260-1390 radiocarbon date of the Turin Shroud was the result of a computer hacking" (23Jul15) and "Steps in the development of my radiocarbon dating of the Turin Shroud hacker theory" (23Jan17).
■ Part 1, 1260-1390 and the 1989 Nature article
• The evidence is overwhelming that the Turin Shroud is Jesus' burial sheet[18Feb14; 24May14; 23Jul15], and therefore its linen is first century or earlier[09Jan14].
• In 1988 three radiocarbon dating laboratories dated the Shroud "1260-1390!" Yet in 1988 three radiocarbon dating laboratories,
[Right: Prof. E. Hall (Oxford), M. Tite (British Museum) and R. Hedges (Oxford) announcing on 13 October 1988 that the Shroud of Turin had been radiocarbon dated "1260-1390!"[24May14].]
Arizona, Oxford and Zurich, dated the Shroud's linen as "1260-1390!"[18Feb14; 07Mar14; 11Apr17]. In 2020 Tite admitted that he put the exclamation mark after "1260 - 1390" on the blackboard at the press conference in the British Museum on 13 October 1988, after claiming in 1990 that, "I can't remember who did that"[25Aug24]. This shows that Tite is not a scrupulous truth-teller but can tell lies when it suits him (see next).
• The mid-point of 1260-1390 is 1325 ± 65 The mid-point of 1260-1390 is 1325 ± 65, the mean year of which, 1325, `just happens' to be exactly 30 years before the Shroud first appeared in undisputed history at Lirey, France, in 1355[29Mar14; 02Dec14; 11Apr17]! But the actual date range of all three laboratories combined and averaged was "1262-1384"[22Jan25]. Tite, the author of the Nature article[22May22], committed "scientific fraud" by "making results appear just a little crisper or more definitive than they really are," first by rounding to the nearest 10 years the actual "1262-1384" dates, when he didn't need to, and second by rounding "1384" to "1390," when 1384 was closer to 1380 than 1390[22Jan25].
• Nature reported that the Shroud is medieval 1260-1390 In 1989, the scientific journal Nature reported the laboratories' results and claimed, "The results provide conclusive evidence that the linen of the Shroud of Turin is mediaeval ... AD 1260-1390" (my emphasis)[18Feb14; 24May14 & 23Jul15]. But "conclusive evidence" is, "Evidence that cannot be contradicted by any other evidence"[CVB]. It is a legal term which has no place in science because to be scientific a theory must be "falsifiable," that is, always open to being tested and found to be false[FFW]. But according to Tite, who wrote the Nature article (see above) if it was proposed that the Shroud be radiocarbon dated again, to test the claim that "the linen of the Shroud of Turin is mediaeval ... AD 1260-1390," he would have to say: "you can't do that: the 1988 radiocarbon dating of the Shroud provided conclusive evidence that the linen of the Shroud of Turin is mediaeval AD 1260-1390," and so it cannot be contradicted by any other evidence! So this was a scientifically false claim by Tite (see above that Tite can tell lies when it suits him).
• Table 1 of the 1989 Nature article [Left 23Jun18] "Sample 1" is the Shroud. The second column is the dating runs of each laboratory[DP89, 612]. Years are before 1950[DP89, 611], after which atmospheric nuclear testing ejected large amounts of carbon-14 into the atmosphere[17Feb19]. So Arizona's first run was 591 ± 30, i.e. 1950-591 = 1359 ± 30. Oxford's first run was 795 ± 65, i.e. 1950-795 = 1155 ± 65. And Zurich's first run was 733 ± 61, i.e. 1950-733 = 1217 ± 61.
See the spreadsheet below which converts each laboratory's dating runs to calendar years (before 1950). As can be seen: firstly, the mean date of Arizona's first run, 1359, was the most recent (youngest) of all three laboratories' 12 dating runs. Secondly, the mean date of Oxford's first run, 1155, was the least recent (oldest) of all three laboratories' 12 dating runs. Thirdly, the mean date of Zurich's first run, 1217, was the least recent (oldest) of Zurich's 5 dating runs. The chance of this happening is 1/4 x 1/3 × 1/5 = 1/60. But since the laboratories were each dating their sub-
[Right: Spreadsheet table of each laboratory's dating runs in the order they appear in Table 1 of the 1989 Nature article, converted to calendar years (before 1950). Note the range of the dates, from 1155 to 1359, is 204 years!]
samples, cut from the one Shroud ~10 mm x 70 mm[DP89, 612] (~0.4 x 2.75 in.) sample; and using their near-identical AMS systems[13Jun14] (see below), if the dates were real (and not computer-generated by a hacker's program), they would have been spread evenly across all three laboratories, with only a year or so difference between each date[RTB].
• Reverse engineering the hacker's algorithm Based on the above, the hacker's algorithm was: 1. Hardwire into the program the first-run dates of each laboratory: Arizona "1350"[22Feb14]; 07Mar14; 11May14] (adjusted later to 1359) (the most recent date of all three laboratories); Oxford "1155," the least recent date of all three laboratories; and Zurich "1217," the least recent of Zurich's dates). 2. For each successive dating run, add or subtract from that first date, and each successive date thereafter, to converge on the target date for that laboratory; 3. Which when combined and averaged across all three laboratories would yield the date, 1260-1390 = 1325 ±65, or close to it because Oxford didn't complete its dating.
Having said the above, it is not essential that the hacker's overall target date was 1325. By his first run date of "1350" he would have been aware that the Shroud first appeared in undisputed history at Lirey, France, in 1355. So his overall target date could have been any year before 1355 that allowed time for the Shroud's flax to grow, be harvested, spun into linen threads, woven on a loom, and for the forger to have painted the image (which didn't happen because the Shroudman's image is not painted[11Jul16]). As for the calculation which produced each year, it could have been a random number generated within limits, so it may be impossible to determine what it was. Nevertheless, since the alternative is that, purely by chance the first run dates of Arizona and Oxford `just happened' to be the most recent, and least recent, respectively, of all the laboratories' dates, and the range of dates of the three laboratories `just happened' to be 204 years (see above), when they should have been only a few years apart, having been cut from the same ~10 mm x 70 mm (~0.4 x 2.75 in.) sample and dated by near-identical AMS systems (see above), the three laboratories' radiocarbon dates of Sample 1, the Shroud, must have been generated by a hacker's program!
• Chi-square test The Shroud radiocarbon dating failed its own chi-square test! A chi-square test is "a statistical method assessing the goodness of fit between a set of observed values and those expected theoretically"[17Feb19]. In the below extract from Table 2, it can be seen that the chi-square value ("Χ2 value (2 d.f.)") of sample 1 (the
Shroud) was 6.4. This contrasts markedly with the table's chi-square values of the control samples 2 (0.1), 3 (1.3) and 4 (2.4). For a chi-square test with 2 degrees of freedom, "(2 d.f.)," the maximum upper limit of homogeneity, at 95% confidence, is 5.99[17Feb19] (see below).
[Above: Extract from a chi-squared test table showing that 5.991 is the upper limit of a 2 degrees of freedom, 0.95% confidence, test for homogeneity[NST].]
The chi-square value of 6.4 of the Shroud samples in Table 2 of the 1989 Nature article means the 3 laboratories' radiocarbon dating samples were not homogeneous[AD19; CT19; 17Feb19; 09Sep23]. That is, the laboratories' results are so different that they cannot be considered as the one dataset. This can be seen in the spreadsheet table above. Arizona and Oxford's years don't overlap: Arizona's oldest date is 1249 and Oxford's youngest date is 1220. And Zurich and Oxford only overlap by 3 years: Zurich's oldest date is 1217 and again Oxford's youngest date is 1220. Fig. 1 of the Nature article actually shows this.
[Left: Fig. 1 Mean radiocarbon dates of Sample 1 (the Shroud) and the three control samples[DP89, 611].]
As can be seen, there is no overlap between Arizona's and Oxford's dates of the Shroud sample (shown by my red box between them). But there is overlap between Arizona's, Oxford's and Zurich's dates of the three control samples]. So the control sample dates were real radiocarbon dates, but the Shroud sample dates were computer-generated by a hacker's program!
• "... with at least 95% confidence"[DP89, 611]. This is false! Because the chi-square test result of the Shroud sample, at 6.4 exceeded the limit of 5.99 (2 d.f, 95% confidence), the age of the Shroud sample was not "AD 1260-1390, with at least 95% confidence[VR90, 21].
• Arizona's dates in Nature are fraudulent [17Feb19] Remi van Haelst (1931-2003), a Belgian industrial chemist and expert in statistical analysis, discovered that Arizona had provided the British Museum with eight radiocarbon dates of the Shroud, some of which when calibrated and converted to calendar years, were more recent than 1355, when the Shroud first appeared in undisputed history at Lirey, France:
"Arizona did not provide FOUR but EIGHT data ... The error-values between brackets are estimated ... Mathematically, the calculations following Wilson-Ward, with EIGHT and FOUR data will give the same result. So why were this data reduced from EIGHT to FOUR???? Because with the quoted errors the Arizona data overspans an era of 540-95 = 445 to 753+93 = 846. About FOUR centuries. Converted into calendar date 1270-1430. And one may not forget that any date below 650 rc conflicts with the historical deadline of 1355, when started the veneration of the Shroud in Lirey. After receiving the Zurich results, with also TWO dates below 650 rc, Dr. Leese wrote a letter to Arizona (dated July 28 1988), asking to REDUCE the EIGHT data to FOUR, by considering the TWO runs made the same day, like ONE run. So the data presented in table 1 are not INDIVIDUAL measurements, but the mean of TWO measurements. Which are in fact the average of between 10-20 measurements. Arizona agreed. because they knew that their mean result 646±31 was in fact conflicting with the historical deadline of 1350" (his emphasis)[17Feb19].Below is my more compact spreadsheet copy of van Haelst's table in his Shroud News article:
[Above (enlarge)[17Feb19]: Arizona laboratory's original eight dates ..., which were secretly statistically manipulated by the British Museum's statistician Dr. Morwen Leese (with Tite and Arizona's approval) to become four dates in the 1989 Nature article (see below). Note that the midpoint of 574±45 is 1950-574 = 1376, which 21 years after 1355. So that was combined and averaged with 606±41 to make it 591±30, the midpoint of which is 1950-591 = 1359, still 4 years past 1355. And 540±57, the midpoint of which is 1950-540 = 1410, 55 years after 1355, was combined and averaged with 676±59 to make it also 606±41, the midpoint of which is 1950-606 = 1344, now 11 years before 1355.]
This was scientific fraud, "making results appear just a little crisper or more definitive than they really are"[see above]. It was also scientific dishonesty to state in the heading of Table 1 that the dating runs were "individual measurements" when for Arizona they were not measurements at all, but averages of measurements. It was also dishonest to not state in a footnote that Arizona's four dating runs were in fact eight. Arizona's first dating run which originally was "1350" (see above) is presumably represented by the "606 ±41" = 1950 - 606 = 1344 ±41. This later statistical manipulation does not affect my Hacker Theory because it was the original "1350" which was `hardwired' into the hacker's program. Moreover, according to Van Haelst, the chi-square value of the Shroud samples is actually 7.13[17Feb19], not 6.4, which means that the Shroud samples' dates across the three laboratories were even less homogeneous[17Feb19]!
• "The spread of the measurements for sample 1 is somewhat greater than would be expected ..." Under Table 2 the Nature article admits that, "An initial inspection of Table 2 shows that the agreement among the three laboratories for samples 2, 3 and 4 [controls] is exceptionally good" but "The spread of the measurements for sample 1 is somewhat greater than would be expected from the errors quoted" (my emphasis)[DP89, 613; 13Jun14; 11Feb15; 18Nov15, etc]. But this is impossible for real Shroud samples, not computer-generated by a hacker's program. The laboratories' Shroud sub-samples were cut from the same ~10 mm x 70 mm (or 1.2 cm x 8 cm - Wilson) Shroud sample (see below), and were dated by the laboratories' near-identical AMS
[Above (enlarge): Drawing of the approximately 1.2 cm x 8 cm sample area, from A1 (Arizona 1), O (Oxford), Z (Zurich) to A (Arizona), with a photo of the 8 cm x 1.2 cm sample superimposed over the drawing on the bottom right hand side[13Jun14; 11Feb15; 18Nov15]. The mean of the Oxford sample's dates is 1193 and the mean of the adjacent Zurich sample's dates is 1268, a difference of 75 years! Clearly there can be no significant difference in radiocarbon dates between sub-samples cut from such a tiny area, if these were real dates, not computer-generated!]
systems[13Jun14; 05Jul14]. In each dating run, the Shroud and the control samples were reduced to pure carbon and irradiated together
[Right (enlarge): Oxford radiocarbon dating laboratory's carousel wheel (2017)[LS17. ]
with the same caesium beam on the same ~25 mm (~1 inch) diameter carousel wheeel)[13Jun14; 11Feb15]. The AMS system is designed so that if something went wrong in a dating run, the Shroud sample and the controls which had a known date, would be wrong together[18Nov15]. It cannot be that the dates of the control samples across three laboratories (which were also each respectively cut from their one piece of cloth) can agree, yet the dates of Shroud samples across the three laboratories can disagree. That is, if the Shroud sample's dates were real and not computer-generated by a hacker''s program!
To be continued the next part 2, "Evidence that the Shroud is older than the earliest 1260 radiocarbon date" of this series.
Notes:
1. This post is copyright. I grant permission to extract or quote from any part of it (but not the whole post), provided the extract or quote includes a reference citing my name, its title, its date, and a hyperlink back to this page. [return]
Bibliography
AD19. Agasso, D., 2019, "The Shroud is not from the medieval era. New studies are needed to know its age," Vatican Insider, 11 June.
CT19. Casabianca, T., et al., 2019, "Radiocarbon Dating of the Turin Shroud: New Evidence from Raw Data," Archaeometry, Vol. 61, No. 5, October, 1223-1231.
CVB. "Conclusive Evidence: Legal Definition," Bar Prep Hero, 2025.
FFW. "Falsifiability," Wikipedia, 24 January 2025.
DP89. Damon, E., et al., 1989, "Radiocarbon Dating of the Shroud of Turin," Nature, Vol. 337, 16 February, 611-615.
NST. "1.3.6.7.4. Critical Values of the Chi-Square Distribution," Engineering Statistics Handbook: National Institute of Standards and Technology, 2025.
RTB. Reference(s) to be provided.
DP89. Damon, E., et al., 1989, "Radiocarbon Dating of the Shroud of Turin," Nature, Vol. 337, 16 February, 611-615.
LS17, "Laboratory spotlight: Oxford Radiocarbon Accelerator Unit (ORAU)," Current Archaeology, 26 December 2017.
VR90. Van Haelst, R., 1990, “Statistical doubt about the C 14 dating of the Shroud,” Shroud News, No. 57, February, 20-23, 21.
VR91. Van Haelst, R., 1991, "Radiocarbon data indeed manipulated," Shroud News, No. 68, December, 5.
Posted 28 January 2025. Updated 15 February 2025.